09 May 2024 | 05:41 PM UTC
Madagascar: Rallies, protests, and increased security likely nationwide through May 29 parliamentary elections
Rallies, protests, tight security likely in Madagascar through May 29 parliamentary elections. Business and transport disruptions possible.
Political rallies, protests, and associated security measures and disruptions are likely across Madagascar through at least May 29 when the island nation holds its scheduled parliamentary elections. Political tensions historically increase during the country's election campaign seasons, with parties typically organizing marches along major streets or holding rallies in stadiums or at other public venues. Security forces are prone to the use of force, especially during street protests in support of opposition candidates. Clashes between activists from rival political camps, or between protesters and police, are not uncommon. Labor and student organizations may also take advantage of the increased political focus to stage protests or strikes in support of their own agendas. Likely civil unrest locations include governmental buildings, universities, and political party headquarters. In Antananarivo, hotspots include the Place du 13 Mai, the Avenue de l'Independance, Mahamasina stadium, and the University of Ankatso campus.
Authorities will almost certainly maintain a higher security posture nationwide, particularly along key thoroughfares and near government buildings, as a precaution. Security measures may include roadblocks, checkpoints, and searches of vehicles and pedestrians. Authorities could implement localized curfews, internet shutdowns, or entry and exit restrictions to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest. In the capital, authorities will likely restrict pedestrian access to prominent city square and other public areas. Security will probably be tightest on election day and for several days thereafter. Localized business and transport disruptions are likely.
Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence; avoid traveling in the vicinity of polling stations. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent areas where large demonstrations are taking place. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Heed the instructions of local authorities. Refrain from publicly discussing politically sensitive topics; refrain from wearing orange clothing due to its association with the ruling party.
Incumbent President Andry Rajoelina is vigorously lobbying to retain his Young Malagasies Determined (YMD) party's outright parliamentary majority. The YMD faces a similar opposition to that which contested the presidential elections in November 2023, when Rajoelina secured re-election after six weeks of violent protests resulting in increased police presence, the closure of Antananarivo's main avenue, and overnight curfews.
These are the country's third free legislative elections since a 2009 coup. The incoming National Assembly will consist of 163 seats elected through a single-round constituency-based election - an increase from 151 to compensate for demographic growth. The outgoing parliament was dominated by the president's alliance. Rajoelina's party is favored to win as it is the only one fielding candidates in all 119 districts, with the main opposition fielding candidates in only 68.
