BRAZIL (Country risk rating: High); 2 January; (Update) Ongoing flooding in Minas Gerais state

Flooding continues unabated in Brazil's south eastern state of Minas Gerais on 2 January. As many as 100 municipalities have been affected to date, with 44 having been placed under a state of emergency in an effort to minimise the significant disruptions that the deluge has caused. While the flood-related death toll has not increased since 19 December, significant damage to infrastructure has occurred. Over 2,400 houses have been destroyed and numerous roads, including 70 bridges, have been rendered impassable. According to state officials, more than 2 million people have been affected, including those in urban centres, such as Belo Horizonte, Ouro Preto, Mariana, Acaiaca, Governador Valadares, Matias Lobato and Espera Feliz. Bouts of heavy rainfall began in Minas Gerais in October, but significant flooding has only affected the state since 15 December. Rainfall conducive to further flooding is predicted to continue until at least 3 January, as a result of a persistent low pressure system in the region. The south eastern region of Brazil generally experiences its heaviest rainfall in December and January; further weather-related disruptions in states such as Minas Gerais, Bahia, Espirito Santo, Rio de Janerio, Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul are thus possible in the coming weeks. Clients in Minas Gerais are advised to defer travel to low-lying areas, particularly along major rivers, many of which may be swollen. Due to the ongoing risk of landslides, clients should exercise heightened caution in mountainous areas of the state. In addition, all advisories issued by the local authorities should be adhered to. Clients in other parts of south eastern Brazil should monitor local media for weather updates and follow the aforementioned advice in the event of flooding.

CHILE (Country risk rating: Medium); 31 December; (Update) An ongoing wildfire forces the closure of Torres del Paine National Park

Authorities closed the Torres del Paine National Park in Chile's southern Magallanes and Antartica Chilena region on 31 December due to an ongoing and spreading wildfire in the park. President Sebastian Pinera has stated that the park will be closed for much of January 2012. A major emergency operation is currently underway to put out the blaze, which is reported to have started on 27 December. The spreading wildfire also forced the evacuation of up to 300 people, including dozens of tourists, on 28 December. Clients in the vicinity of Torres del Paine National Park are advised to monitor local media for updates and advisories. Furthermore, clients intending to visit the park are advised to consult with their travel provider or the relevant authorities prior to departure to avoid disruptions to their travel itinerary.

PERU (Country risk rating: Medium); 2 and 3 January; (Update) Renewed protest action against controversial mine in Cajamarca region

Two protest gatherings, to be held on 2 and 3 January, as well as a strike of indefinite duration from 2 January, are expected to take place in Peru's Cajamarca region. Although unspecified, it is likely that the civil unrest will affect urban centres in the region's Celendin, Cajamarca, Hualgayoc and Contumaza provinces. The renewed call for protest action has come as a response to recent negotiations between the Peruvian government and representatives from the Conga gold mine project, operated by the US-based Newmont Mining Corporation. The planned protests will mark the first significant unrest in the region since a state of emergency, declared on 5 December, was lifted on 15 December. This order applied to the provinces of Cajamarca, Celendin, Hualgayoc and Contumaza, and was declared in order to minimise the disruptions that the ongoing anti-mining protests caused in the region; it also allowed for an increased security force presence in the aforementioned provinces. Protests in the Cajamarca region against the Conga gold mine project were ongoing from 24 November, but ended abruptly after the state of emergency was declared. However, the protesters have since continued to call for the closing of the mine, arguing that it pollutes local water supplies and diverts irrigated water away from local farming interests. Clashes between protesters and security forces have been reported at earlier protest gatherings related to the Conga mine and the possibility of violence at future protests is high; associated travel disruptions are also likely. Clients in the Cajamarca region are advised to maintain a low profile and avoid all large demonstrations as a precaution.

UNITED STATES (Country risk rating: Medium); 31 December; Series of arson attacks affects parts of Los Angeles

Security forces are on high alert in the US city of Los Angeles following an escalation in the number of arson attacks in the city. Incidents of arson have been reported in Los Angeles since 29 December; however, 31 December saw a significant increase in the intensity, frequency and geographical range of the attacks. The wave of arson led to at least 38 fires from 29 to 31 December and dozens more on New Year's Eve. Areas known to have been affected include those bordered by Hollywood, the San Fernando Valley, Westside and Lennox. Most blazes in these parts were started when cars and other automobiles were set alight, but some fires spread to nearby structures, including houses and apartments. There have been no reports of any significant injuries to date. US authorities have embarked on a major campaign to stop the arson attacks and a number of federal security agencies are now involved in a manhunt for those responsible. On 30 December, two people were arrested on suspicion of lighting fires; however, the increase in arson attacks since their arrest suggests that either responsibility rests elsewhere or that copycat arsonists are operating in the city. As a result, further attacks in the coming days are possible. Clients in Los Angeles should follow any advisories issued by local authorities. In addition, those with personal vehicles are advised to remain vigilant and should, if practically possible, park these in a well-lit, secured public car park or private garage, particularly overnight.

PAKISTAN (Country risk rating: Extreme); 30 December; At least 15 people killed in bombing in Quetta

At least 15 people were killed and 40 others injured in a car bomb attack in Pakistan's city of Quetta, located in Balochistan province, on 30 December. It is suspected that the blast targeted the residence of Shafeeq Mengal, a local politician and son of the former chief minister of Balochistan, Mir Muhammad Naseer Mengal. Police also defused a number of additional explosive devices found on the site. While no group has taken responsibility for the latest incident, the Tehreek-i-Taleban Pakistan (TTP) has claimed responsibility for similar attacks in Quetta in the past. The last significant incident in the city occurred on 7 September, when at least 24 people were killed in what the TTP described as a retaliatory attack for an ongoing security operation by Pakistani authorities against the group. Given the TTP's history of targeting prominent politicians, security forces and local businesses, further attacks are possible in the short- to medium-term. Due to the ongoing insecurity in Pakistan, red24 advises against all travel to the country. Clients in Pakistan, including Quetta, are advised to implement robust personal, residential and travel security measures.

THAILAND (Country risk rating: Medium); 1 January; Flash flooding reported in southern regions

Local authorities in Thailand issued a Disaster Status red-flag warning on 1 January for the southern city of Hat Yai as ongoing flash flooding affects southern parts of the country; the red-flag warning indicates that evacuations could be announced immediately. The Janviroj and Jankasem areas of Hat Yai city have been identified as being at an elevated risk of flooding. Flash flooding has thus far been reported in the Nakhon Si Thammarat, Songkhla and Yala provinces. A number of roads in these provinces have been affected, with major roads around the city of Sadao being the worst affected. Mudslide warnings have also been issued for residents along the Luang mountain range. In addition, rough sea conditions, which have been affecting the Gulf of Thailand coastline in recent days, are likely to continue amid adverse weather expected in the coming days. These warnings are the latest to be issued by the Thai authorities for the southern provinces as heavy rainfall has been reported across the region in recent days. The adverse weather is expected to continue for the short-term and increased flooding is thus possible in the above-mentioned areas. Clients in or planning to travel to southern Thailand in the coming days are advised to exercise caution in low-lying areas, elevated regions and along the coast due to the respective threats of flooding, landslides and storm surges. Furthermore, clients in southern Thailand should monitor local media for updates and advisories from the local authorities.

TURKEY (Country risk rating: High); 31 December; (Update) Kurdish protests continue amid new clashes in the south east

Kurdish protesters and police clashed in several of Turkey's south eastern provinces on 31 December. The violent confrontations were the latest since Turkey's military mistakenly killed 35 civilian smugglers in an air strike targeting Kurdish separatist militants in Sirnak province on 28 December. The incident sparked protests in Kurdish majority areas throughout Turkey, including in parts of Istanbul. In the main Kurdish city of Diyarbakir, fresh protests erupted on 31 December after two men were killed during a police raid on suspected militants earlier in the day. Near Basakci village in Tunceli province, six people were killed in a military operation targeting militants from the country's most active separatist group, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), on 31 December. The latest clashes come amid a marked escalation in conflict between Turkish security forces and Kurdish separatist militants in the region since June 2011, and a major upsurge in military activity within the region since October 2011. Frequent clashes have also prompted protest action in the region and elsewhere in Turkey in recent months, and further protests and demonstrations are likely in the short-term. As a result of ongoing low-level conflict between Kurdish militants and the Turkish military in the south east of the country, red24 advises against non-essential travel to a number of provinces in the region, including Diyarbakir, Tunceli and Sirnak. Clients in the affected area are advised to adopt robust security measures at this time and avoid all protest gatherings as a precaution.

BAHRAIN (Country risk rating: High); 31 December and 1 January; (Update) Police clash with protesters on consecutive days in Manama and Sitra

Police in Bahrain used teargas and rubber bullets to disperse anti-government protesters on the island of Sitra on 1 January. The protesters had converged on the funeral of a youth killed during anti-government protests in the capital, Manama, a day earlier. According to reports, the youth had succumbed to injuries sustained after being struck by a teargas canister fired by riot police dispersing Shiite protesters participating in a planned protest in the capital on 31 December. Authorities claimed the fatality followed a petrol bomb attack on security forces. Bahrain's Shiite opposition is calling for the greater devolution of power from the Sunni-dominated executive to the elected Parliament. It is unlikely that the government will agree to these demands; however, it may be open to negotiations. In the interim, opposition-led protests are expected to persist. Clients should note that there is a high threat of confrontation between protesters and police at protest gatherings, with the threat becoming elevated should protesters attempt to block roads or march into Manama. red24 advises against all non-essential travel to Bahrain due to the persistent low-level civil unrest in the country. Clients in the country are advised to monitor political developments closely and avoid all street demonstrations as a precaution. Travel during the evening, particularly outside of Manama, should be avoided if possible.

EGYPT (Country risk rating: High); 2 January; (Update) Mubarak trial resumes in Cairo

The trial of Egypt's former president, Hosni Mubarak, will resume at the Police Academy facility in the New Cairo area of the capital, Cairo, on 2 January. The trial initially resumed on 28 December following a three-month hiatus. Mubarak has been charged with human rights abuses and ordering the killing of protesters during the January and February 2011 anti-government demonstrations. He is being prosecuted along with his two sons, Alaa and Gamal, the former minister of the interior, Habib El-Adly, six former El-Adly aides, and businessman, Hussein Salem. The trial has generated numerous pro- and anti-Mubarak protests near the court venue since it first began on 3 August. Clashes between opposing groups of demonstrators and between protesters and the security forces have been reported on occasion. During the most recent trial session on 28 December, protests resumed near the trial venue; however, no major acts of violence were reported. Nonetheless, the possibility of unrest during the forthcoming court session cannot be discounted. Security is also expected to be increased significantly near the Police Academy building, which could result in localised traffic disruptions. Clients should note that the trial is expected to last for the short-term at least. Clients in or planning to travel to Cairo should exercise heightened caution in the New Cairo area, particularly during upcoming trial days. All street demonstrations and concentrations of police units in this area should be avoided.

EGYPT (Country risk rating: High); 3 and 4 January; (Update) Third and final stage of the People's Assembly elections to be held

Egypt will hold the third phase of elections to the People's Assembly/National Assembly (Majlis Al-Sha'ab or lower house) on 3 and 4 January. Phase three polls will be held in Minya, Qalyubiyah, Gharbia, Daqahliyah, North Sinai, South Sinai, Marsa Matrouh, Qena and New Valley. The run-off vote for the third phase will be held on 10 and 11 January. The legislative elections began on 28 November and have proceeded relatively peacefully to date. Minor election-related violence involving persons of opposing political parties and the security forces has been reported near polling stations on voting days; however, the election process has not been overly affected. However, the voting period has been accompanied by some anti-government protest action; the most serious of which was reported between 16 and 20 December, when clashes between pro-reform protesters and the security forces in central Cairo left a number of people dead. The country remains susceptible to protests over a wide range of political, economic and social issues which, while not directly affecting the elections, could still coincide with voting periods. Following the upcoming third phase of voting, the country will hold elections to the Shura Council between 29 January and 11 March; however, there is a possibility that the election schedule may be changed. Presidential elections are scheduled for the middle of the year. Clients should note that there remains an ongoing threat of low-level election-related confrontations near polling stations on voting days; larger-scale clashes between protesters and police are also possible. Clients in Egypt are advised to monitor political developments closely and to exercise caution near election-related facilities and political party offices during upcoming voting days. All large crowds and street demonstrations should be avoided as a precaution against violent civil unrest.

KENYA (Country risk rating: High); 1 January; Gunmen target bars in Garissa

At least two people were killed and dozens more wounded when a group of unidentified gunmen attacked two bars in the town of Garissa in Kenya's North Eastern Province, near the Kenya-Somalia border, on 1 January. The gunmen allegedly opened fire on the establishments, which were hosting New Year celebrations, from their vehicle; security guards and patrons who attempted to leave were targeted. The incident occurred despite the heightening of security across the country ahead of New Year festivities. Although Christmas celebrations passed without any major security incidents, a foiled terrorist plot on 23 December related to Christmas celebrations in Nairobi and Mombasa, as well as a grenade attack on a nightclub in the northern town of Wajir on 24 December, which left seven people injured, are indicative of the security threat during the festive period. Furthermore, security was heightened in light of the continued terrorist threat in the country stemming largely from the Somalia-based al-Shabaab Islamist extremist group. Al-Shabaab has conducted a series of attacks and threatened to carry out further attacks in Kenya in retaliation for the country's support of the transitional government in Somalia, as well as its military incursion in that country. Clients in Kenya, including Garissa, are advised to exercise heightened vigilance at this time and expect an increased security presence. Clients are further advised against all travel to within 50km of the shared Kenya-Somalia border, as well as against all non-essential travel to within 150km of the border with Somalia along Kenya's eastern coastline.

NIGERIA (Country risk rating: High); 31 December; State of emergency declared in parts of Yobe, Borno, Niger and Plateau states

Nigerian president, Goodluck Jonathan, declared a state of emergency in parts of Nigeria's north eastern and central areas on 31 December in response to a recent escalation of violence by the Boko Haram Islamist sect. The emergency decree applies to the following Local Government Areas: Maiduguri Metropolitan, Gamboru Ngala, Banki Bama, Biu and Jere in Borno state; Damaturu, Geidam, Potiskum, Buniyadi-Gujba and Gasua-Bade in Yobe state; Jos North, Jos South, Barkin-Ladi and Riyom in Plateau state; and Suleja in Niger state. The order also reportedly includes the temporary closure of international borders with Niger, Chad and Cameroon in the affected states. The announcement follows a recent series of deadly bombings which have been linked to Boko Haram. The group, which seeks the imposition of Sharia law throughout Nigeria, claimed responsibility for a major attack that killed at least 37 people at the St Theresa Church in Nigeria's capital, Abuja, on 25 December. A number of subsequent church bombings on 25 December in Damaturu and Fika, located in Yobe state, and in Jos, the capital of Plateau state, are also believed to have been perpetrated by Boko Haram. The group has also been linked to the latest violence in Maiduguri, the state capital of Borno, where a series of minor explosions occurred at a mosque in the city. The blasts failed to cause any fatalities; however, gunmen later killed three members of a Muslim cleric's family. Due to a number of ongoing security concerns, clients are advised against all non-essential travel to Nigeria. Clients currently in the affected areas are advised to exercise a high level of security awareness, particularly in and around places of worship, security installations, popular entertainment establishments, government buildings and major transport hubs, which are all considered as being at the highest risk of being targeted in a terrorist attack. Clients should also adhere to the conditions of the state of emergency.

NIGERIA (Country risk rating: High); 31 December; At least 52 people killed in shooting incident in Ebonyi state

At least 52 people were killed in a shooting incident in the Ishielu Local Government Area in Nigeria's south eastern state of Ebonyi late on 31 December. Gunmen reportedly entered the community before opening fire on the police station and subsequently at the Afor Ezillo market. It is believed that the attack was related to a land dispute between neighbouring Ezza and Ezilo communities. Security has been heightened in Ishielu following the incident. Tensions between the Ezza, an ethnic sub-group of the Igbo, and the Ezilo have led to violence in the past; however, until this recent attack, it was believed that a mutual settlement proscribing violence had been reached. Given the historical precedent, the recent incident has the potential to spark reprisal attacks. As was illustrated by the Ishielu attack, any violence poses an incidental risk to persons in the area, owing largely to the fact that violence of this nature is often indiscriminate. Due to a number of security concerns, clients are advised against all non-essential travel to Nigeria, including Ebonyi state. Clients in Ebonyi, particularly those in Ishielu, should maintain a low profile and monitor local developments closely. Any advisory issued by local authorities should be followed.

SOMALIA (Country risk rating: Extreme); 31 December; TFG and Ethiopian forces occupy the western town of Beledweyne

Somali troops loyal to the country's Transitional Federal Government (TFG), backed by Ethiopian military forces, attacked al-Shabaab militants near Somalia's western town of Beledweyne on 31 December. It is reported that TFG and Ethiopian forces managed to take control of the town without significant resistance as al-Shabaab forces withdrew south toward the town of Bulo Burte. Al-Shabaab is one of Somalia's largest insurgent groups, controlling large swathes of central and southern Somalia; however, the group has come under increasing pressure in recent months. In mid-October 2011, Kenya's military forces invaded southern Somalia in retaliation for a series of kidnappings and attacks by the militant group against targets in Kenya. The attack by the Kenyan military occurred after the 'tactical withdrawal' of al-Shabaab from the capital, Mogadishu, in August, following an offensive by TFG troops and forces of the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM). The presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia is significant. While the Ethiopian military has reportedly conducted limited border incursions into Somalia in recent years, the last major military operation in Somalia ended in 2009. Should Ethiopia allocate more resources to military operations in central Somalia, the opening of a third front against al-Shabaab would place significant pressure on the Islamist group. In the interim, further conflict is expected in and around Beledweyne, a commercial and farming hub that connects the centre of the country to the capital. Al-Shabaab is expected to launch a counter-offensive, as they have done in and around Mogadishu recently, in an attempt to retake previously held positions around the strategic town. In light of the ongoing insecurity in the country, red24 advises against all travel to Somalia.

SOUTH SUDAN (Country risk rating: Extreme); 1 January; Additional security forces deployed to Pibor County, Jonglei state

Additional security forces have been deployed to Pibor County, located in South Sudan's Jonglei state, on 1 January, following an outbreak of ethnic violence between the Murle and Lou Nuer ethnic groups. Thousands of people have reportedly fled the county after an estimated 6,000 armed members of the Lou Nuer ethnic group marched on the town in pursuit of members of the Murle tribe in what is believed to be a reprisal attack over cattle raids. A number of buildings, including medical facilities of the international aid organisation, Medecins Sans Frontieres, have been burned down. Members of the Murle tribe sought shelter in Pibor after Lou Nuer members raided the towns of Lukangol and Nyergeng, also in Jonglei state, a week ago; the attacks left at least 24 people dead. Additional UN peacekeepers have been deployed to the area since last week to prevent an escalation of violence; however, UN forces have thus far been unable to prevent the advance of Lou Nuer fighters on Pibor and the resulting assault on the city and surrounding towns. Tribal and ethnic conflicts related to cattle rustling and other resource disputes remain a serious security concern in the northern states of South Sudan, specifically Jonglei and Central Equatoria. On 5 December 2011, at least 40 people were killed in attacks related to tribal tensions between the Murle and Dinka ethnic groups in the town of Akot, Jonglei state. Further attacks are possible in the affected areas, despite the deployment of additional security forces. Due to numerous security concerns, including ongoing intra-regional conflict, red24 advises against all travel to South Sudan, excluding the cities of Juba and Wau, to which all non-essential travel is advised against. Clients in or intending to travel to the affected areas are advised to implement maximum security precautions.